ARK believes that solely two to 3 Layer 1 platforms could seize most good contract market worth by 2030.
ARK Make investments estimated in its “Huge Concepts 2026” report that the marketplace for good contract networks and pure-play digital currencies may attain $28 trillion in complete market worth by 2030. The agency mentioned these digital property, that are used as shops of worth, mediums of change, and models of account on public blockchains, may broaden at an annual development fee of about 61% by way of the tip of the last decade.
ARK projected that Bitcoin may account for roughly 70% of the general market, whereas the rest is anticipated to be dominated by good contract networks comparable to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).
Bitcoin Leads ARK’s 2030 Outlook
Underneath ARK’s forecast, BTC’s market capitalization may rise at a compound annual development fee (CAGR) of round 63% over the following few years, rising from almost $2 trillion to about $16 trillion by 2030.
The funding administration agency estimated that the market capitalization of good contract platforms may develop at a 54% annual fee to roughly $6 trillion by 2030, which is anticipated to be supported by annualized income of about $192 billion at a median take fee of 0.75%. ARK mentioned two to 3 Layer 1 platforms may take most of that market.
In the meantime, the US Bitcoin ETFs and public corporations held 12% of the whole bitcoin provide in 2025, up from 8.7% beforehand. The agency discovered that the ETF balances rose 19.7% through the yr, rising from about 1.12 million BTC to nearly 1.3 million BTC.
Public firm BTC holdings additionally expanded, after climbing 73% from round 598,000 BTC to roughly 1.09 million BTC.
ARK additionally noticed that BTC’s risk-adjusted returns surpassed these of most different large-cap cryptocurrencies and indexes for many of 2025. It mentioned bitcoin’s common yearly Sharpe Ratio exceeded that of ETH and SOL, and the common of the opposite 9 parts within the CoinDesk 10 Index because the newest cycle low in November 2022, the beginning of 2024, and the start of 2025.
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It added that Bitcoin has turn into much less unstable because it grows right into a safe-haven position.
Solely a Few Cash Will Survive?
Moreover, Layer 1 networks have been additionally discovered to be evolving from revenue-generating platforms into financial property. Making use of a high-growth income a number of of 50x to Ethereum’s community income, ARK estimated that greater than 90% of Ethereum’s market worth is attributed to its position as a financial asset. Alternatively, ARK said that Solana generated $1.4 billion in income, which signifies that round 90% of its valuation is pushed by community utility.
The agency added that only some digital property will retain financial properties and function liquid shops of worth based mostly on its analysis.
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