Bitcoin’s February Dip to $60K Marked Cycle Low

3 indicators converged on the February low: weekly RSI at a 4-year low, the sentiment index at its worst, and BTC retesting the 2021 cycle excessive.

Fashionable crypto analyst Ash Crypto has stated that Bitcoin’s drop to round $60,000 in February 2026 was the underside of the present market cycle, primarily based on a sample he says has performed out exactly throughout the previous two cycles.

If he’s proper, the king cryptocurrency could already be within the early phases of a brand new leg increased.

The 23-Month Sample Behind the Name

Ash Crypto’s argument is easy:

“Every cycle, BTC has made a brand new ATH,” he wrote on X. “And the underside occurred precisely 23 months after making a brand new ATH.”

To again his idea, he went again to January 2017 when BTC hit an all-time excessive. This was adopted 23 months later by a cycle low in December 2018.

The identical factor occurred within the cycle after that, the analyst stated. BTC hit its peak in December 2020, and 23 months later, in November 2022, it bottomed.

“This cycle, Bitcoin made a brand new ATH in March 2024. If it goes by historical past, the underside has already occurred in February 2026 (23 months),” the analyst concluded.

This was proper across the time BTC touched the $60,000 degree, then went again above $70,000.

The timing alone can be straightforward to dismiss, however Ash Crypto added three technical indicators that every one fired throughout the low earlier within the 12 months. The weekly RSI dropped to a four-year low. The sentiment index hit its worst studying on document. And Bitcoin retested the 2021 cycle excessive.

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“All this stuff mixed have beforehand marked the underside for Bitcoin,” he wrote, “and possibly ‘THIS TIME IT’S NOT DIFFERENT.’”

On-chain knowledge from analyst Ali Martinez tells an analogous story, at the least partially. Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio collapsed to -43 earlier than recovering to round 20, suggesting that the market absorbed the worst of the promoting.

On the identical time, the share of Bitcoin’s realized market cap held by individuals who purchased throughout the final month has fallen beneath 7%, which in previous cycles has meant retail is basically gone and provide has settled into stronger arms.

Bears Aren’t Satisfied

Fellow analyst Ted Pillows is seeing issues in a different way. In line with him, a small bounce had occurred, however he nonetheless anticipated new lows on the upper timeframe.

“That’s usually the way it works,” he wrote. “Short-term energy pulls individuals in and finally ends up changing into exit liquidity.”

Bitcoin was buying and selling round $78,500 on the time of writing, and Ash Crypto sees two paths from right here: a each day shut above $80,000 that would push BTC to $86,000 to $90,000, or a rejection that pulls it again into the $68,000 to $74,000 vary.

Its newest bounce was helped alongside by information of an prolonged US-Iran ceasefire, which lifted the broader market earlier than contemporary pressure studies stopped the OG crypto simply in need of $80,000.

On his half, Martinez has flagged $73,700 because the quantity to observe. Maintain it, and the street to $96,000 stays open. Lose it and the bullish backside name begins to look shaky, with $55,000 again within the dialog.